Economist Gonzalo Bernardos, professor at the University of Barcelona and director of the Master’s Degree in Real Estate Consultancy, Management and Promotion, foresees intense competition in the mortgage market, where banks will offer exceptional conditions to attract clients. Bernardos points out that fixed-rate mortgages are already being granted at 2.3% for 30 years, but he considers that, by the end of the year, they could be reduced to 2% or even 1.8%. In addition, banks would be willing to finance between 85% and 90% of the value of the home, which would open the doors to the middle class, eliminating the barrier of prior savings and facilitating access to a home.
On the other hand, the real estate sector foresees a “mortgage war” that will give a new boost to the market in 2024. Juan-Galo Macià, president of Engel & Völkers for Spain, Portugal and Andorra, agrees that there will be an increase in home sales due to attractive credit conditions, higher demand and limited supply. According to Macià and Bernardos, this situation may generate a significant upturn in used housing transactions, especially in the second half of 2024, with a trend that would continue until mid-2025. It is also expected that interest rates will continue to fall and that the arrival of immigrants will further stimulate the market, consolidating Spain as a high-demand real estate destination in Europe, something that Bernardos describes as “the Florida of Europe”.
Gonzalo Bernardos foresees a 2024 marked by strong growth in employment, with up to 500,000 new jobs, a record in tourism, an increase in household spending and a drop in mortgages and commodities. He criticizes the government for creating uncertainty among homeowners with the rise of “inquiokupas” and price controls in Catalonia, which could reduce the supply of housing.
For his part, José Carlos Pérez, of Engel & Völkers, stresses the need for more land for new construction, which is becoming more expensive due to the shortage. Regarding the market, Engel & Völkers highlights that in Madrid the average price is close to 5,000 euros/m² and in Barcelona it is around 4,000 euros/m², with Gerona and the Costa Brava leading the prices in the region.